On a method of modeling of socio-economic processes dynamics

Abstract

In economic science, researchers have been long studying the possibility of using mathematical apparatus to perform a complete and accurate analysis and build a reliable forecast of the studied economic processes. There is a large number of different ways to create mathematical models that allow the construction the dynamics of changes in socio-economic data. In this article, author applies two types of discrete probability chains, which are generalization of well known Markov processes, to the modeling of dynamics of two types of data. The initial data are checked by using several statistical criteria. The analysis of the consistency of results with empirical dynamics has been made. The results shows that the satisfaction of statistical criteria is important for successful application of discrete probabilistic chains.